Analysis and Projection of Transport Sector Demand for Energy and Carbon Emission: An Application of the Grey Model in Pakistan

The incredible increase in carbon emissions is a major global concern. Thus, academicians and policymakers at COP26 are continuously urging to devise strategies reduce other greenhouse gas emissions. transportation sector contributor developing countries. Therefore, this study projected an fossil fuel demand for corresponding dioxide emission Pakistan from 2018 2030 by employing the Grey model using annual data 2010 2018. Furthermore, determinant of modeled environmental sustainability such as stochastic regression IPAT that links impact product population, affluence, technology on time series spanning 1990 2019. values oil reveal increasing trend, with average growth rates 12.68% 11.45%, respectively. fully modified ordinary least squares (FM-OLS) findings confirmed Kuznets hypothesis. population emerged driver emissions, while technological advancement can This urges switch green energies encouraging hybrid vehicles, number vehicles road positively impacts transport sector’s demand. Moreover, economic controlling rate discouraging more children be valid policy reducing